Machina World Cup Intelligence

Historical accuracy report of the model over played fixtures (calibration + CLV ledger). Cost: 12 credits (intelligence). Example: worldcup_backtest_forecasts() Args: league: league/competition filter (default: World Cup). season: season filter.

Grounded explanation of WHY a market moved: price history + live research, source-cited. Cost: 12 credits (intelligence). Get market_id from worldcup_search_markets or worldcup_market_watch. Example: worldcup_explain_market_move(market_id="KXWC26-BRA") Args: market_id: the market id/ticker to explain (required). window_hours: move window to analyze in hours (default 24). min_move_bps: ignore moves smaller than this (basis points). include_reasoning: include the reasoning trace.

Social/news fan-sentiment card (buzz, narratives, breaking news) via live X/web search. Tournament-wide by default, or scoped to a team or fixture. Cost: 40 credits (skill card). ~1h cache. Example: worldcup_fan_pulse(event="Brazil vs Morocco") Args: event: natural fixture description ("Brazil vs Morocco") — or get event_urn from worldcup_get_schedule. event_urn: canonical fixture URN (preferred when known). team: scope the pulse to one team. opponent: opponent name (with team). date: fixture date YYYY-MM-DD (disambiguates rematches). query: free-text subject when no event/team is given. lookback_hours: search window in hours (0 = workflow default). force_regen: bypass the cache and regenerate now.

Scan open markets for model-vs-market gaps (informational edge candidates across the tournament). Cost: 18 credits (edge). Informational only — never betting advice. Example: worldcup_find_market_edges(min_edge_bps=300) Args: min_edge_bps: minimum edge in basis points (default 200). limit: max candidates returned (default 10). include_reasoning: include per-candidate reasoning. status: market status filter (e.g. "open").

Enriched single-fixture context: form, group standings slice, injuries, optional research extras. Cost: 1 credit (data). Example: worldcup_get_event_context(event="Brazil vs Morocco") Args: event: natural fixture description ("Brazil vs Morocco") — or get event_urn from worldcup_get_schedule. event_urn: canonical fixture URN (preferred when known). team: team name (alternative to event). opponent: opponent name (with team). date: fixture date YYYY-MM-DD (disambiguates rematches). provider_event_id: a provider's raw event id (auto-resolved). include_prematch_research: add grounded pre-match research. include_social_pulse: add a social sentiment slice.

Live state of ONE market: price, order-book depth, optional candles/trades history. Cost: 3 credits (market). Get market_id from worldcup_search_markets. Example: worldcup_get_market_state(market_id="KXWC26-BRA", include_history=True) Args: market_id: the market id/ticker from worldcup_search_markets. include_book: include order-book depth (default true). include_history: include price history candles. include_trades: include recent trades. history_hours: history window in hours (default 24). history_interval: candle interval (e.g. "1h").

Dixon-Coles model forecast for one fixture (1X2 probabilities, model-vs-market gaps). Cost: 12 credits (intelligence). Get event_urn from worldcup_get_schedule. Example: worldcup_get_match_forecast(event_urn="urn:machina:...:wor") Args: event_urn: canonical fixture URN (required). include_reasoning: include the model's reasoning trace. min_gap_bps: only report model-vs-market gaps above this (bps).

Tournament fixtures with their event_urn — the discovery primitive every per-fixture tool builds on. Cost: 1 credit (data). Example: worldcup_get_schedule(team="Brazil") Args: team: filter by team name (e.g. "Brazil"). opponent: filter by opponent name. date_from: ISO date lower bound (YYYY-MM-DD). date_to: ISO date upper bound (YYYY-MM-DD). status: fixture status filter (e.g. "scheduled", "finished"). limit: max fixtures returned (default 20).

Per-fixture betting signal: fuses the model forecast with the best market price into recommendation + edge% + EV + fractional-Kelly stake. Cost: 18 credits (edge). Informational decision support — never a guaranteed bet. Example: worldcup_get_signal(event="Brazil vs Morocco") Args: event: natural fixture description ("Brazil vs Morocco") — or get event_urn from worldcup_get_schedule. event_urn: canonical fixture URN (preferred when known). team: team name (alternative to event). opponent: opponent name (with team). date: fixture date YYYY-MM-DD (disambiguates rematches). bankroll: optional bankroll for stake sizing. kelly_fraction: fraction of full Kelly (default 0.25). min_edge_bps: minimum edge in basis points to surface (default 200). fee_bps: market fee in basis points (default 0). include_reasoning: include the signal's reasoning trace.

Whoami/smoke check — verifies your API key and the product surface. Cost: FREE (0 credits). Call this first to validate setup before spending credits. Example: worldcup_health() Args: include_connectors: also report upstream connector reachability.

Tournament-wide market-watch card: biggest market movers and informational edges across World Cup markets. Cost: 40 credits (skill card). ~20 min cache. Example: worldcup_market_watch() Args: force_regen: bypass the ~20min cache and regenerate now.

Grounded match preview card: form, key men, group context, market snapshot — source-cited, ready to publish. Cost: 40 credits (skill card). Example: worldcup_match_preview(event="Brazil vs Morocco") Args: event: natural fixture description ("Brazil vs Morocco") — or get event_urn from worldcup_get_schedule. event_urn: canonical fixture URN (preferred when known). team: team name (alternative to event). opponent: opponent name (with team). date: fixture date YYYY-MM-DD (disambiguates rematches). force_regen: bypass the cache and regenerate now.

Post-match recap card, authored once the final whistle blows — result, narrative, market settlement. Cost: 40 credits (skill card). Example: worldcup_match_recap(event="Brazil vs Morocco") Args: event: natural fixture description ("Brazil vs Morocco") — or get event_urn from worldcup_get_schedule. event_urn: canonical fixture URN (preferred when known). team: team name (alternative to event). opponent: opponent name (with team). date: fixture date YYYY-MM-DD (disambiguates rematches). force_regen: bypass the cache and regenerate now.

Grounded player card: performance context + narrative, source- cited. Cost: 40 credits (skill card). Example: worldcup_player_spotlight(player="Vinicius Jr", team="Brazil") Args: player: player name (e.g. "Vinicius Jr"). team: the player's national team (disambiguates homonyms). player_urn: canonical player URN (from worldcup_resolve). force_regen: bypass the cache and regenerate now.

Resolve ANY provider id or free-text name (team, player, fixture) to the canonical Machina entity + URN via the identity crosswalk. Cost: 1 credit (data). Example: worldcup_resolve(id="sr:competitor:4715") Args: id: provider id (Sportradar/Opta/api-football/...) or a name like "Vinicius Jr" / "Brazil vs Morocco".

Search Kalshi + Polymarket World Cup markets in one normalized shape. Cost: 3 credits (market). Example: worldcup_search_markets(team="Brazil") Args: query: free-text market search. team: filter markets involving a team. source: "kalshi" or "polymarket" (default: both). status: market status filter (e.g. "open"). limit: max markets returned (default 20). force_live: bypass the cache and hit the venues live.